Hello,

I made beatthecouch.com in July and it’s basically a game where you try to beat the S&P 500 and buy/sell when you want. Your opponent is a couch. It buys on day one and never sells.

Now over 100K+ games later, the hypothesis stands: it’s not wise to try to trade and time the market. Here’s the original data from the actual games itself.

Source: the game’s own database, every completed game Jul 12 to Aug 28. Tool: Python and matplotlib. Market data: S&P 500 daily total returns 1928 to 2019.

thanks!

  • DireTech@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
    9·
    8 days ago

    Indexes are great, but S&P 500 is a US focused index. Would you have the same results if you picked an index based on Britain or Italy over the same time span?

    I feel like that sort of thing is going to matter as China keeps rising while the US keeps shooting itself in the foot.

    • Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In@lemmy.worldEnglish
      2·
      7 days ago

      You are correct. Also 50% of the world’s wealth is in real estate. The return on owned domiciles will be the overwhelming factor for most normal people.