Hello,

I made beatthecouch.com in July and it’s basically a game where you try to beat the S&P 500 and buy/sell when you want. Your opponent is a couch. It buys on day one and never sells.

Now over 100K+ games later, the hypothesis stands: it’s not wise to try to trade and time the market. Here’s the original data from the actual games itself.

Source: the game’s own database, every completed game Jul 12 to Aug 28. Tool: Python and matplotlib. Market data: S&P 500 daily total returns 1928 to 2019.

thanks!

  • thedarkfly@feddit.orgEnglish
    1·
    3 天前

    So the top 10% of players is comparable to the top 10% of monkeys? Would the “Skilled” category not be lucky as well? I mean, a p-value of 10% is not great…