Hello,

I made beatthecouch.com in July and it’s basically a game where you try to beat the S&P 500 and buy/sell when you want. Your opponent is a couch. It buys on day one and never sells.

Now over 100K+ games later, the hypothesis stands: it’s not wise to try to trade and time the market. Here’s the original data from the actual games itself.

Source: the game’s own database, every completed game Jul 12 to Aug 28. Tool: Python and matplotlib. Market data: S&P 500 daily total returns 1928 to 2019.

thanks!

  • isleepinahammock@lemmy.blahaj.zoneEnglish
    1·
    3 days ago

    Are they? When most of the money going into the market is through blind index fund investing, any assumption that stocks are rationally priced seems completely unjustified.