If the machine predicts that you will take both Boxes A and B, Box B will be empty. But if the machine predicts that you will take Box B only, then Box B will contain $1,000,000,000. The machine has already done it’s prediction and the contents of box B has already been set. Which box/boxes do you take?
To reiterate, you choices are:
-Box A and B
-Box B only
(“Box A only” is not an option because no one is that stupid lol)
Please explain your reasoning.
My answer is:
spoiler
I mean I’d choose Box B only, I’d just gamble on the machine being right. If the machine is wrong, I’ll break that thing.
This is based on Newcomb’s Paradox (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb’s_paradox), but I increased the money to make it more interesting.
This isn’t a false dillemma. Imagine if the way the machine predicts is by copying your brain and putting it in a simulated reality, then the copy of you gets asked to choose which boxes to take, the exact same way and be given the exact same information. Under this assumption, the machine could predict with 100% accuracy what the real you would’ve chosen.
How do you know you are even the real you. You could just be the machine’s simulation of the real you.
There is a dilemma and the dilemma is about how much you want to trust the machine.
If you are a simulation, then your choice doesn’t matter. You will never get any real benefit from the boxes. It’s like saying, “there is also a finite possibility that the machine is lying and all the boxes are empty”. In which case, the choice is again irrelevant.
Situations in which your choice doesn’t matter are not worth considering. Only the remaining possibility, that you are not a simulation and the machine is not lying, is worth considering.