I think it’d look something like this:
50 years: Textbooks mostly gone from schools in many developed countries. Paper might be used occasionally when tech isn’t working, but teaching will be done mostly on computers or tablets. Most kids will have “ugly” handwriting because of they rarely write. The devices kids use to learn might be provided by the school, or some schools school might require kids to bring their own as part of a back to school supplies list.
In the adult world, paper will be mostly gone except like militaries or certain government agencies where secrecy is important. Certain jobs where there are safety procedures to be followed will still have paper instruction manuals.
For the average person’s home, there will be no paper except perhaps a small amount of people who still carry cash. Privacy-concious people will still write on paper. Everyone else just use their phone notes app.
In developing/undeveloped countries, they will be mostly the same but lagged behind developed countries like 30 years.
100 years: Paper is near extinct. Schools no longer have paper except one or two packs of printer paper in the main office probably for redundancy. Tech mostly don’t fail anymore, so any paper probably has been sitting on a shelf somewhere for many years. There would be very few amount of paper left in the world. For security sensitive purposes, air-gapped tablets will replace paper.
From this point on, humanity will move towards a future without paper.
But that’s just my prediction, what do you think?
I find it a bit too much. Humanity has invented several ways of traveling yet we still choose to walk and sometimes even run to places. Same with paper. I totally agree that it use will plummet, but it won’t disappear. The thing about paper is that it’s too versatile, cheap and portable to go one hundred percent extinct.
I agree, but don’t think it has anything to do with the versatility of paper. Writing on all kinds of things will persist. I’m even thinking about unusual mediums like writing on a piece of tape as a label, writing measurements on a piece of wood you’re going to cut, whiteboards, etc.
While most of us may be done with writing long prose on paper, writing in general isn’t likely to go away.
Your point on writing is true too, but versatility is an important aspect of paper. Packaging for example. Gift wrapping. Arts and crafts. Things like post it notes, allowing you to physically add a note to something.