The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party back in April became the latest in a long list of groups to conduct a wargame examining a potential U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan. Yet the most important question about such a conflict is the one none of these organizations ever ask: What is the vital national […]
I do think that this underselling the United States a little bit, if Amerikkka does decide to go directly to war with China it will actually mobilize its economy, which would help quite a bit. Of course, China would also probably mobilize its economy so I doubt the final outcome would be any different
They’d basically have to, but US will have two big problems there.
First, it’s going to be hard to convince the public that US actually has to go to a real war over Taiwan. When push comes to shove, people in US just don’t actually care about Taiwan that much. It’s one thing when US government fucks around the globe and there’s no perceptible change at home, it’s quite another to say that US has to go on a war footing because US has to fight over some small island most people in US couldn’t find on a map. I really can’t see that being possible politically, especially in the face of the Ukrainian debacle and a looming recession.
Second, US no longer has end to end domestic supply chains that it controls. Thanks to wonders of globalization, China has become a central piece to many supply chains US economy depends on including military production. This article was recently talking about the scale of the problem for US. In case of an open conflict, US would be immediately cut off from this and it would be an economic disaster. And of course, it’s pretty clear that US has no hope of keeping up with China in terms of actual military production either.
So, any fantasies US politicians might entertain about having a war with China are completely divorced from reality. While this kind of idiotic move might’ve been possible before Ukraine, I expect it’s going to be a a non starter now.