It’s ironic, because the WWW always was decentralized by nature. Websites were people’s social media profiles and decentralized platforms. Email was the decentralized instant messenger. But then business realized that it would be more profitable to sell ads if they can target them, and targeting only works well when the users stay on your site, and not someone else’s.
I can’t blame the people for flocking into these walled gardens. They made a lot of sense in the beginning. Instead of having to learn how to code (or use MS FrontPage, and figure out wtf is an FTP), you could just click a button to insert your photo on “your” profile page, change the texts, add some links… Ease-of-use is a major driving force when it comes to mass-adoption of technology. Companies do this well, because they recognize this issue, but the FOSS community tends to be too homogenous and tech-minded to execute it as well as commercial players do, because they operate largely on a volunteer-basis, and aren’t exactly easily approachable by folks who aren’t tech-minded.
But now we’re getting to a point where all this has gone a full circle. The overwhelming majority of websites have evolved to have horrendous UX, because money and the marketing dept. speaks louder than users’ needs. And now the users are slowly beginning to realize that these companies don’t serve their interest like they did 10-20 years ago.
With some luck, the open, decentralized models will gain more traction again, as long as the people making the software manage to attract UX-people and designers.
I’d want to say yes, but I think it depends on how you were using reddit in the first place.
If the content creators and participants act together, with at least a semi-unified front, I believe there’s potential for lots of damage. Creators have their audiences as leverage. Mods can stop doing unpaid work for reddit and open the spam floodgates. Participants can participate on other platforms, which in turn drives lurker traffic further from reddit. If we could get a larger movement going on, reddit would eventually wither away.
Digg lost half of it’s userbase in three months due to redesigns and venture capital meddling. I’m not sure if reddit’s API changes are a similarily powerful motivator for the masses by themselves. In reddit’s case, I think it would require the majority of content creators and participators to move the OC elsewhere.