Assuming the chance of either sex is equal, this problem can be broken down into multiple cases. The first is that there are two unseen kids in the house. What’s the probability they are both boys? 1/4. Now the door opens and you see two boys. The probability both are boys is 1/1. But if you only see one boy, the problem simplifies into the probability of a child being a boy. One of the probabilistic events postulated in the original problem is fixed at 1. So the answer is 1/2.
Think of it as the two coin flip, except one coin has two heads. That simplifies to a one coin flip.
If the fan blew across an airfoil aligned perpendicular to the axis of the boat, it can definitely generate thrust. The top of the airfoil will develop a lower pressure than the bottom, and the difference in pressure causes force that moves the boat. It’s just way more efficient to use a fan to push the boat.