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Cake day: June 22nd, 2023

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  • bucho@lemmy.oneto196@lemmy.blahaj.zoneMonty rule problem
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    1 year ago

    It might be helpful to extrapolate this out into a higher number of doors. Say there are 10 doors instead of 3, with still just the one prize. So instead of a 33% chance of getting the right answer off the bat, you have a 10% chance.

    Now, after making your choice, Monty, being the good guy that he is, opens 8 of the doors that contain no prize, leaving only the door you picked, and one other closed door. Originally, your chance of getting the right door was 10%. However, that’s just because you didn’t know what was behind the other doors. Now, you know what was behind the other doors. Now, the number of doors that could contain the prize has shrunk from 10 to 2.

    The prize is definitely behind one of the 10 doors. It could be behind the one you picked at random at the start. But that only occurs 10% of the time. 90% of the time, it’s behind one of the other doors, and Monty has just shown you which of those doors it is by eliminating the other 8 possibilities. So 10% of the time, if you stick with your original choice, you’re going to get a prize. But 90% of the time, you won’t. So it’s way better to switch when given the opportunity.

    Does that make it any clearer?


  • I’m guessing he’s wearing the Steven Crowder shirt, actually. It’s got that same picture of Che on it, with the same font. If that’s the case, the shirt’s full message says “Socialism is for f*gs”. The “is for f*gs” part is underneath Che’s face, and so is obscured in this image.

    I would normally link to that shirt, but fuck Steven Crowder. Not gonna be responsible for driving traffic to that shithead’s website.